Deck Estimation

The true count needs one number the table does not show you: how many decks are still to be dealt. You read it from the discard tray. A deck of 52 cards is about 1.5 cm (0.6 in) tall, so a six-deck shoe stands about 9 cm, and a tray holding 3 cm of cards means two decks have gone and four remain.

Judge in half-decks, not cards. Look at the tray, estimate the discards, subtract from the shoe. In a six-deck shoe with about 2.5 decks in the tray, 3.5 remain. Remember that the cut card usually sits at around 75% penetration, so the last deck and a half is never dealt — what matters is the count against what will actually be played.

Half-deck precision is enough, and less is not. A running count of +6 with three decks left is a true count of +2; misjudge the tray by one deck and you call it +3, bet the wrong amount, and make a deviation you should not have. Most counting errors at real tables are estimation errors, not addition errors.

It becomes fast with repetition, like judging a glass as half full. The Deck Estimation mode shows you discard piles of random sizes and scores your guess; aim to be within half a deck every time, and then do it with the count running at the same time.