Running Count vs True Count

The running count says how many extra high cards are left, but not how concentrated they are. A count of +6 with six decks still to be dealt is one extra high card per deck — barely anything. The same +6 with one deck left is six extra high cards in the next fifty-two. That is a very different shoe.

So you divide. True Count = Running Count ÷ decks remaining. Running count +8 with four decks left gives a true count of +2; the same +8 with two decks left gives +4. Most counters round towards zero for betting decisions, so a +2.7 is treated as +2 — the conservative side.

What the number means in money: each point of true count moves the edge by roughly half a percent. At a true count of zero the house holds about 0.5% against a perfect basic-strategy player. At +1 the game is close to even, at +2 you hold about half a percent, at +3 about one percent. That is the whole business model: bet small below +1, big above it.

The true count drives both halves of the method — how much you bet, and which plays you change. Its one input you cannot read off the table is the number of decks remaining, which you have to estimate by eye. That skill has its own chapter and its own training mode.